NCAAF

(7) Notre Dame 23, (2) Georgia 10

I expected this matchup to produce the best game of the CFP quarterfinals. A narrow point spread? Check. Two teams wanting to win with ball control? Check. Two programs built through the lines of scrimmage? Check. The formula for a great game was there, at least. Alas, most of that didn’t matter, thanks to a few critical Georgia errors.

Those errors, of course, were a Gunner Stockton lost fumble late in the second quarter and allowing a Notre Dame kick-return touchdown to open the third quarter. That’s 14 points for the Fighting Irish — more than the difference in this contest. Suffice to say, Georgia had to play a cleaner game without Carson Beck.

Notre Dame deserves its fair share of credit, however. Taking advantage of an opponent’s errors isn’t a guarantee, but the Fighting Irish’s surge midway through the game is the reason they’re advancing. Outside of Ohio State, no semifinalist has played better than Notre Dame in the CFP.

I’ll never be Riley Leonard’s biggest fan — the senior quarterback simply doesn’t offer enough meat on the bone as a passer — but he’s a gamer capable of moving an offense. Speed is one of Leonard’s best qualities, and he’ll need it in the semifinals to elude Abdul Carter. The senior finished with one passing touchdown and 65 rushing yards yesterday.

No, Georgia’s run isn’t over. But its dynasty probably is, and that’s to be expected — it would’ve been virtually impossible for the Bulldogs to repeat their success from 2021 and 2022.

Losing is never the best outcome for a team, but perhaps Kirby Smart will now be forced to take a 30,000-foot view of his program. There are certainly issues in Athens — probably nothing major — that Smart can correct and use as fuel moving forward. The Bulldogs aren’t going away, but a small culture shift might be necessary.

Gunner Stockton didn’t need to be Carson Beck to win this game. He did, however, need to control the offense better, dampening the positive plays that he did make. Stockton finished 20-of-32 for 234 yards and a touchdown. Those aren’t elite numbers, but the passer received minimal help from his receivers, including Dillon Bell. This wasn’t a new issue for Georgia, either. The Bulldogs need to recruit better at wide receiver, an inexcusable truth given Georgia’s overall success on the trail.

It wasn’t just the wide receivers that struggled on Georgia’s offense. The tackles weren’t good either, as the three-man rotation of Monroe Freeling, Xavier Truss and Earnest Greene wasn’t effective. The reliable Dylan Fairchild also committed a key false start. As I mentioned earlier, Kirby Smart has a lot to clean up within his program.

Over the last five-plus seasons, Georgia’s defense has been its backbone. That didn’t change in 2024, but you won’t find anyone comparing this unit to those of 2021 or 2022. NFL departures of some enormous talents are the main reason for the decline, as the Bulldogs failed to adequately replace some players that are excelling on Sundays. It might not get any better next year, as Malaki Starks and Jalon Walker are likely turning pro. Walker recorded just three tackles in this loss.

That’s enough regarding Georgia — it’s time to preview the Orange Bowl.

Penn State and Notre Dame have been bemoaned for years about not winning big games, yet each program has now won two playoff games to reach this point. It’s about to be three for someone. My early edge goes to the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is playing slightly better and has also earned stronger recent victories — nobody is going to confuse SMU or Boise State for Georgia.

A major key for Penn State is the play of Drew Allar. The junior signal-caller is supremely talented, but prone to too many misfires. Misfiring too often against a stout defense like Notre Dame is a recipe for disaster, as I don’t feel great about the Nittany Lions’ rushing attack versus the Fighting Irish. Unless, of course, Howard Cross joins Rylie Mills on the injury report.

A simpler look at the matchup also gives the edge to Notre Dame. Sure, James Franklin just won back-to-back playoff games, but Marcus Freeman feels like a massive riser in the coaching industry. It’s easier to trust Freeman heading into next Thursday, but Notre Dame ought to be a bit less vanilla against Penn State than it was yesterday. I predict that will be the case. 21-13, Notre Dame.