First Four

(16) St. Francis vs. (16) Alabama State

The most inconsequential game of the tournament. Each team is playing for the right to get slaughtered by Auburn.

(11) North Carolina vs. (11) San Diego State

North Carolina doesn’t belong in the field, but that’s due to a horrendous record against good competition, not a lack of talent. The Tar Heels have enough to score on a stingy San Diego State defense.

(16) Mount St. Mary’s vs. (16) American

These teams are better than the other No. 16 seeds playing in the First Four, but the final result for the winner will be the same. A loaded Duke team awaits.

(11) Xavier vs. (11) Texas

The SEC is incredible this season, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a little overrated. A healthy Zach Freemantle makes a difference for the Musketeers.

First Round

(16) Alabama State vs. (1) Auburn

Auburn has lost three of its past four games, so look for the Tigers to come out angry. The in-state Hornets won’t stand a chance.

(9) Creighton vs. (8) Louisville

Everything is set up for Louisville to win this game: a better seed, an in-state game, and favorable metrics. Even so, I think Creighton will look like the better team on Thursday. The Bluejays are experienced and don’t rely much on their bench — a positive when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Also, it doesn’t hurt that Louisville hails from the wimpy ACC.

(12) UC San Diego vs. (5) Michigan

Oof, Michigan got hosed. Fresh off a Big Ten Tournament championship, the Wolverines’ gift is a trip to the Rocky Mountains to face off against another underseeded team. UC San Diego isn’t just another mid-major, either, as the Tritons finished 30-4 and hold the nation’s longest win streak of 15 games. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones could be the best player on the floor in this game, and if he is, good luck to the Wolverines.

(13) Yale vs. (4) Texas A&M

The Ivy League is on a run of tournament success. I don’t think it carries over to this year, however. Texas A&M is in a rut, but the Aggies will pull out of it during this contest. 76-62 Aggies.

(11) North Carolina vs. (6) Ole Miss

Again, the Tar Heels shouldn’t even be here, but that’s irrelevant at this point. First Four winners have a strong track record of performing well following their initial victory, and I think North Carolina uses that momentum to pull a minor upset here. I haven’t been infatuated with Ole Miss this season.

(14) Lipscomb vs. (3) Iowa State

Matchups between these seeds tend to be mismatches, but this affair will be even worse. We should be looking at a beatdown, even with Keshon Gilbert sidelined for the tournament. The Cyclones are too good defensively.

(10) New Mexico vs. (7) Marquette

This tilt features a pair of struggling teams, so something has to give. I’m guessing Kam Jones outduels Donovan Dent. Marquette gets some of its mojo back.

(15) Bryant vs. (2) Michigan State

Physically, Bryant isn’t your typical No. 15 seed, but the Spartans aren’t losing a first-round game in the Midwest. Michigan State has too much on the perimeter, so let’s go with 83-64 Spartans.

(16) Norfolk State vs. (1) Florida

People are hesitant to say it right now, so I will — Florida is the best team in the country. Therefore, the MEAC champions won’t threaten the Gators.

(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Connecticut

We’re far past the point of wondering if the Connecticut of the last two years would return. Since that isn’t happening, expectations have been tempered, but the Huskies shouldn’t be completely discounted. There will be hard moments in this game for Connecticut, but Dan Hurley’s team will prevail somewhat easily.

(12) Colorado State vs. (5) Memphis

This is a fascinating matchup. By looking at the spread, you would think the committee got it backwards, as the Rams are favored over the Tigers. That’s perfectly reasonable, though, as Colorado State is one of the nation’s hottest teams, and Memphis is, well, Memphis. The Tigers have yet to fully impress this season, and they’ll go down with a whimper on Friday.

(13) Grand Canyon vs. (4) Maryland

It would be perfectly fine to pick Grand Canyon in this game. I probably would, had the Antelopes not underachieved this season. I wanted to see more dominance from the program during WAC play, but that didn’t happen. The Crab Five will be too much for Grand Canyon.

(11) Drake vs. (6) Missouri

Something tells me this won’t be the most popular pick in the world. Missouri is one of the better teams in the vaunted SEC, and it’s fair to be concerned with Drake in this game athletically. I just believe, however, that Missouri isn’t as talented as its resume suggests, and Drake only needs a pretty good shooting performance to win.

(14) UNC Wilmington vs. (3) Texas Tech

Underrated is probably the wrong word, so I’ll say that Texas Tech is underappreciated. The Red Raiders don’t play in the SEC and don’t have a legendary — yet — coach, but they can matchup with anyone. There’s little to no chance that UNC Wilmington keeps JT Toppin off the glass.

(10) Arkansas vs. (7) Kansas

There’s really nothing in this game that would surprise me. I do think, though, that Kansas has one resounding victory left in it. Arkansas is vulnerable, and the Razorbacks’ lack of offense will destroy them in this tilt.

(15) Omaha vs. (2) St. John’s

St. John’s feels magical this season. Sure, it’ll probably end horribly for the Red Storm, but the ride will be fun while it lasts. Omaha can be frisky, but St. John’s should stifle the Mavericks.

(16) American vs. (1) Duke

Evisceration. Next.

(9) Baylor vs. (8) Mississippi State

I’m feeling like a casual fan here. I’ve been impressed with the Bulldogs most of the season, but it’s hard to pick against Scott Drew. Does Baylor have more talent than Mississippi State? Probably, but the Bulldogs boast a better resume. Which VJ Edgecombe shows up? This should be an intriguing battle in Raleigh.

(12) Liberty vs. (5) Oregon

Liberty should win — yes, you read that right — this game, but Oregon lucked out and gets to play in Seattle after 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The Flames are scary, but they aren’t that scary. Plus, the Ducks’ size could be problematic for Liberty. This contest will be a great way to cap off the First Round, regardless of how it plays out.

(13) Akron vs. (4) Arizona

Akron is slightly underrated analytically, but not to the point it should threaten Arizona. The Wildcats are an odd evaluation themselves, though, as they boast the talent of an even higher seed, but have lost 12 games. Those factors lend to unpredictability, which is fun, but there’s more. Each team has a productive bench, creating even more chaos. I’ve said a lot, but Arizona should still win easily, 97-81.

(11) VCU vs. (6) BYU

Oh man, this will be a fun one. BYU is red hot, but too many people are discounting 28-6 VCU. The Rams will give the Cougars all they can handle, but BYU will shoot its way past VCU’s pressure defense. The winner of this contest can absolutely make a deep run.

(14) Montana vs. (3) Wisconsin

Uh oh. The Badgers just made a great run in the Big Ten Tournament, but Wisconsin will be tired and has to head west for this game. Whether fans want to accept it or not, there’s normally at least one completely unexpected First Round upset every year. I think it happens here in Denver. Montana is good enough offensively.

(10) Vanderbilt vs. (7) Saint Mary’s

Vanderbilt is one of the few SEC teams that’s worse in the metrics than its seed would suggest. The Commodores are perfectly capable of taking down a Saint Mary’s team with a less than stellar tournament track record, but I think people will be surprised at how easily the Gaels prevail.

(15) Robert Morris vs. (2) Alabama

Some No. 15 seeds do fun things in the First Round. Robert Morris will not be one of those teams. Alabama has been sort of messy recently, but the Crimson Tide are a sleeping giant. That’s a weird thing to say about a No. 2 seed, but it fits in a year like this where the No. 1 seeds are so strong. 108-63 Crimson Tide.

(16) SIU Edwardsville vs. (1) Houston

SIU Edwardsville making its first NCAA Tournament is a fun story. This battle, however, will be a bloody one for the newbies. Houston will bludgeon SIU Edwardsville.

(9) Georgia vs. (8) Gonzaga

Matchups between these seeds are normally coinflips, but Gonzaga isn’t your normal No. 8 seed. The Zags are probably one of the nation’s 10 best teams, and should prevail versus Georgia quite easily. Asa Newell is fun, though.

(12) McNeese vs. (5) Clemson

Clemson, I’m sorry. The 27-6 Tigers are having a storybook year, but they’ve run into the wrong team. McNeese got destroyed by Gonzaga in the tournament last season, but it’s a new year and the Cowboys are new and improved. Loaded with power conference-caliber talent, Will Wade’s team will edge past Clemson.

(13) High Point vs. (4) Purdue

I’m intrigued by this game. It’ll probably be closer than many think, but Purdue’s experience and guard play should win out.

(11) Xavier vs. (6) Illinois

This game would be fairly evenly matched, but something tells me Illinois hasn’t peaked yet. Xavier will have difficulty stopping the Fighting Illini.

(14) Troy vs. (3) Kentucky

How weak are the No. 14 seeds this season? It’s pretty bad, but at least it’s a strong year for the No. 12 seeds. Anyway, Kentucky’s offense will be FAR too much for the Trojans on Friday.

(10) Utah State vs. (7) UCLA

This could be the hardest game to forecast for the First Round. Utah State made the tournament based on a strong non-conference record, so maybe the Aggies revert to their 2024 form. If not, UCLA will take advantage.

(15) Wofford vs. (2) Tennessee

I quietly felt Tennessee would be ripe for a First Round upset, but that was a silly take, considering this bracket. The Volunteers will pound Wofford.

Second Round

(9) Creighton vs. (1) Auburn

(12) UC San Diego vs. (4) Texas A&M

(11) North Carolina vs. (3) Iowa State

(7) Marquette vs. (2) Michigan State

(8) Connecticut vs. (1) Florida

(12) Colorado State vs. (4) Maryland

(11) Drake vs. (3) Texas Tech

(7) Kansas vs. (2) St. John’s

(9) Baylor vs. (1) Duke

(5) Oregon vs. (4) Arizona

(14) Montana vs. (6) BYU

(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (2) Alabama

(8) Gonzaga vs. (1) Houston

(12) McNeese vs. (4) Purdue

(6) Illinois vs. (3) Kentucky

(10) Utah State vs. (2) Tennessee

Sweet 16

(12) UC San Diego vs. (1) Auburn

(7) Marquette vs. (3) Iowa State

(4) Maryland vs. (1) Florida

(3) Texas Tech vs. (2) St. John’s

(4) Arizona vs. (1) Duke

(6) BYU vs. (2) Alabama

(12) McNeese vs. (8) Gonzaga

(6) Illinois vs. (2) Tennessee

Elite Eight

(3) Iowa State vs. (1) Auburn

(3) Texas Tech vs. (1) Florida

(2) Alabama vs. (1) Duke

(8) Gonzaga vs. (6) Illinois

Final Four

(1) Florida vs. (1) Auburn

(8) Gonzaga vs. (1) Duke

National Championship

(1) Florida vs. (1) Duke